The transition away from fossil fuels is usually framed as a long-term course of, however current knowledge suggests the shift is already taking place. Solar energy has now crossed a significant threshold within the US, surpassing coal within the electrical energy era combine for the primary time.
Regardless of the Trump administration’s makes an attempt to drive a coal revival, it has been steadily shedding floor to different vitality sources in recent times, squeezed out by low cost pure fuel and quickly falling renewable vitality costs. Solar energy, particularly, has been on a tear as costs drop exponentially.
Final month, the 2 strains lastly crossed. Photo voltaic equipped 12.8 p.c of US electrical energy in Might, edging previous coal’s 12.2 p.c share to turn out to be the nation’s third-largest supply of energy behind pure fuel and nuclear, in keeping with current knowledge from vitality suppose tank Ember.
“Overtaking coal for the primary month on file reveals simply how far photo voltaic has come, from a distinct segment contributor to the third-largest and fastest-growing supply of energy within the US electrical energy system,” Nicolas Fulghum, senior knowledge analyst at Ember, stated in a press launch.
The transition is as a lot about coal’s waning significance within the US vitality system, as it’s about photo voltaic’s progress. Coal’s share has practically halved in 5 years, falling from 19.7 per cent in Might 2021 to 12.2 p.c immediately and hitting an all-time month-to-month low in April.
Over the identical interval, photo voltaic’s share of electrical energy era has greater than doubled from 5.4 p.c to 12.8 p.c. And it hit an all-time excessive of 45.5 terawatt-hours in Might, up 17 p.c in comparison with the identical month final yr and above the earlier file set in July 2025. Ember will get its knowledge from the US Vitality Data Administration.
The business does face some headwinds although. A separate report from the Photo voltaic Vitality Industries Affiliation and analytics agency Wooden Mackenzie discovered that the 7.8 gigawatts of recent photo voltaic capability added within the first quarter of 2026 is a 27 p.c decline in comparison with the earlier yr.
That is partly attributable to common seasonal patterns for the business, says the report, however was additionally due to the expiry of a tax credit score for residential installations and commerce restrictions and tariffs concentrating on imported photo voltaic elements from Asia initiated by the Trump administration. The federal government has additionally made it tougher to get permits for brand new initiatives.
However regardless of the obvious slowdown, photo voltaic and battery storage collectively accounted for 91 p.c of all new electricity-generating capability added to the grid within the first quarter of the yr. And the variety of new utility-scale initiatives signed within the first quarter hit 6.3 gigawatts, an increase of 15 p.c. Tellingly, the SEIA notes that states President Trump gained in 2024 make up 74 p.c of recent photo voltaic capability put in in that interval.
“In a world of fluctuating gas costs, vitality patrons have made it clear that they need the safety, low value, and pace of photo voltaic and storage,” Darren Van’t Hof, interim president and CEO at SEIA, stated in a press launch.
“Impeding the one sector that’s actively constructing new energy is a reckless gamble that may solely drive electrical energy payments increased. The stakes are just too excessive for Washington’s allowing gridlock to proceed.”
On account of these obstacles, Wooden Mackenzie’s five-year forecast predicts that annual additions will plateau round 43 gigawatts. That’s nonetheless a powerful tempo of set up, but in addition a big slowdown from the breakneck progress seen during the last couple of a long time. So, whereas photo voltaic might have knocked one fossil gas competitor off the rostrum, with out a change in vitality coverage it might battle to keep up its spectacular momentum.