Reminiscence scarcity might trigger the most important smartphone shipments dip in over a decade

An increase within the want for computer systems and information facilities for AI is inflicting a large scarcity of RAM, leading to costs of reminiscence capturing up in multiples. Now, analyst agency IDC predicts that this can trigger smartphone shipments to plummet by 12.9% this 12 months, making it the most important dip in additional than a decade.

Earlier this 12 months, IDC stated that producers shipped 1.26 billion gadgets in 2025. The agency predicts that the amount will dip to only one.12 billion this 12 months.

The reminiscence disaster will trigger greater than a brief decline; it marks a structural reset of your entire market, basically reshaping lengthy‑time period TAM (Complete Addressable Market), the seller panorama, and the product combine,” Nabila Popal, senior analysis director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Cellular Telephone Tracker, stated in an announcement.

Popal stated that due to reminiscence scarcity, the typical promoting value of a smartphone is meant to rise by 14%.

“We anticipate consolidation as smaller gamers exit, and low-end distributors face sharp cargo declines amid provide constraints and decrease demand at increased value factors. Though shipments will witness a document drop, Smartphone ASP is projected to rise 14% to a document $523 this 12 months,” she talked about.

The agency stated that, due to this development, the Center East and Africa will face shipments dropping over 20% year-over-year. Different markets like China and Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China) may also decline by 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.

It famous that it expects RAM costs to stabilize by mid-2027.

Final 12 months, one other analyst agency, Counterpoint, additionally famous that smartphone shipments would go down, however its predicted dip was solely 2.6%.

Earlier this 12 months, co-founder and CEO of Nothing, Carl Pei, additionally stated that smartphones will price extra in 2026 as reminiscence modules for smartphones have began costing extra for producers. “Manufacturers now face a easy selection: increase costs by 30% or extra in some circumstances, or downgrade specs. The “extra specs for much less cash” mannequin that many worth manufacturers had been constructed on is not sustainable in 2026,” he stated.

“In consequence, some markets, notably entry and mid-tier segments, are more likely to shrink by 20% or extra, and types which have traditionally dominated these segments will battle,” Pei famous.