True Ventures co-founder Jon Callaghan doesn’t assume we’ll be utilizing smartphones the way in which we do now in 5 years — and possibly under no circumstances in 10.
For a enterprise capitalist whose agency has had some huge winners over its twenty years – from shopper manufacturers like Fitbit, Ring, and Peloton, to enterprise software program makers HashiCorp and Duo Safety – that’s greater than armchair theorizing; it’s a thesis on which True Ventures is actively betting.
True hasn’t gotten this far by following the gang. The Bay Space agency has largely operated beneath the radar regardless of managing roughly $6 billion throughout 12 core seed funds and 4 “choose,” opportunity-style funds that it has used to pour extra capital into portfolio firms which are gaining momentum. Whereas different VCs have grown extra promotional – constructing private manufacturers on social media and podcasts to draw founders and deal stream – True has gone in the other way, quietly cultivating a good community of repeat founders. The technique appears to be working: in line with Callaghan, the agency boasts 63 exits with good points and 7 IPOs amid a portfolio of some 300 firms assembled over its 20-year historical past.
Three of True’s 4 current exits within the fourth quarter of 2025 concerned repeat founders who got here again to work with the agency once more after earlier successes, says Callaghan. Nonetheless, it’s Callaghan’s occupied with the way forward for human-computer interplay that actually stands out in a sea of AI hype and mega-rounds.
“We’re not going to be utilizing iPhones in 10 years,” Callaghan says flatly. “I sort of don’t assume we’ll be utilizing them in 5 years – or let’s say one thing completely different that’s slightly safer – we’re going to be utilizing them in very alternative ways.”
His argument is straightforward: our telephones are awful at being the interface between people and intelligence. “The best way we take them out proper now to ship a textual content to substantiate this or ship you some message or write an electronic mail – [that’s] tremendous inefficient, [and] not a terrific interface,” he explains. “[They’re] liable to error, liable to disruption [of] our regular lives.”
So certain is he of this that True has been spending years exploring various interfaces – software-based, hardware-based, all the things in between. It’s the identical intuition that led True to guess early on Fitbit earlier than wearables had been apparent, to spend money on Peloton after a whole lot of different VCs stated ‘no thanks,’ and to again Ring when founder Jamie Siminoff stored working out of cash and even the judges on “Shark Tank” turned him away. Every time, the guess regarded questionable, says Callaghan. Every time, the guess was on a brand new means for people to work together with expertise that felt extra pure than what got here earlier than.
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The most recent manifestation of this thesis is Sandbar, a {hardware} machine that Callaghan describes as a “thought companion” — or, in additional mundane phrases, a voice-activated ring worn on the index finger. Its singular function: capturing and organizing your ideas by means of voice notes. It’s not making an attempt to be one other Humane AI Pin or compete with Oura’s well being monitoring. “It does one factor rather well,” Callaghan says. “However that one factor is a basic human behavioral want that’s lacking from expertise right now.”
The concept isn’t to passively file ambient audio however to be there when an concept strikes, serving as a sort of thought accomplice. It’s connected to an app, leverages AI, and, in line with Callaghan, represents a really completely different philosophy about how we must always work together with intelligence.
What drew True to Sandbar founders Mina Fahmi and Kirak Hong wasn’t simply the product, although. “Once we met Mina, we had been simply completely aligned on imaginative and prescient,” Callaghan remembers. True’s staff had already been considering for years about various interfaces, making focused investments round that chance. They’d met with dozens of founders, in consequence. However the method of Fahmi and Hong – who beforehand labored collectively on neural interfaces at CTRL-Labs, a startup acquired by Meta in 2019 – stood out. “It’s about what [the ring] permits. It’s concerning the conduct it permits that we are going to very quickly notice we will’t reside with out.”
There’s an echo right here of Callaghan’s previous line about Peloton: “It’s not concerning the bike.” To some, the bike – even its earliest iteration – was compelling. However Peloton was actually concerning the conduct it enabled and the group it created; the bike was simply the vessel.
This philosophy of betting on new behaviors — not simply new devices — additionally explains how True has managed to remain disciplined about capital. At the same time as AI startups elevate a whole lot of hundreds of thousands at billion-dollar valuations out of the gate, True insists that it’s in a position to follow what it does greatest, which is to write down seed checks of $3 million to $6 million for 15% to twenty% possession in startups that it usually will get to see first.
Callaghan says True will elevate more cash to fund what’s working, however he’s not involved in elevating billions of {dollars}. “Like, why? You don’t want that to construct one thing superb right now.”
That very same measured method colours his view of the broader AI increase. Whereas he says (when requested) that he believes OpenAI may quickly be value a trillion {dollars}, and whereas he calls this probably the most highly effective compute wave we’ve seen, Callaghan sees warning indicators within the round financing offers backing hyperscalers and their $5 trillion in projected CapEx spending on information facilities and chips. “We’re in a really capital intense a part of the cycle, and that’s worrisome,” he notes.
That stated, he’s optimistic about the place the true alternatives lie. Callaghan thinks the best worth creation is forward of us – not within the infrastructure layer however within the utility layer, the place new interfaces will allow fully new behaviors.
All of it comes again to his core investing philosophy, which sounds virtually romantic — the sort of pitch-perfect VC knowledge that may ring hole from most individuals: “It must be scary and lonely and try to be known as loopy,” Callaghan says about early-stage investing executed proper. “And it must be actually blurry and ambiguous, however try to be with a staff that you simply actually imagine in.” 5 to 10 years later, he says, you’ll know when you had been on to one thing.
Both means, primarily based on True’s observe file of betting on {hardware} that many others missed – health trackers, linked bikes, sensible doorbells, and now thought-capturing rings – it’s value paying consideration when Callaghan says the cellphone’s days are numbered. Being early is the entire level — and the pattern traces assist his thesis: the smartphone market is successfully saturated, rising at barely 2% yearly, whereas wearables — smartwatches, rings, and voice-enabled gadgets — are increasing at double-digit charges.
One thing’s shifting in how we wish to work together with expertise, and True is putting its bets accordingly.
Pictured above, Sandbar’s Stream ring. For way more from our dialog with Callaghan, tune in to the StrictlyVC Obtain podcast subsequent week; new episodes drop each Tuesday.